The number of passengers at Polish airports this year could increase by as much as 10.5%, which means that the airports will handle over 50 million people, according to the ‘Forecasts for the aviation market 2019’ analysis, prepared by PwC experts. The Polish aviation industry still exhibits one of the highest growth potentials in Europe, according to the authors of the report.
The data presented in the PwC report show that global passenger traffic will develop faster than the global economy over the next 20 years, reaching an annual average growth rate of 4.4%. Emerging markets will be the leaders of growth during this period, primarily in the Middle and Far East, where annual growth will average 5.9% for the Middle East and 5.5% for Asia-Pacific. During this period, the European market will record a slower than global growth rate, due to weaker GDP dynamics, which will amount to 1.8% on average annually, compared to a global growth rate of 2.9%.
PwC experts emphasise that the Polish aviation market has one of the highest growth potentials in the whole of Europe.
Last year, the number of passengers at Polish airports increased by 15% and exceeded 45 million. Due to the expected economic slowdown, this year will be slightly different, but compared to other markets, Poland will still be able to boast double-digit growth of about 10.5%, which would mean that we will reach another milestone; namely 50 million passengers served at Polish airports within 12 months.
In 2018, most regional airports recorded significant growth, and the largest one was recorded by the Poznań-Ławica airport, where the number of passengers increased by 34%. Last year, Okęcie airport in Warsaw grew by 13%, approaching almost 18 million serviced air passengers.
According to PwC’s analysis, the Polish aviation market is still highly concentrated in terms of shares of individual carriers. Three airlines occupy 77% of the market: Ryanair, LOT and Wizz Air.
As a result of an expansionary policy, among other things, last year PLL LOT won a significant portion of the market, thereby coming closer to the current leader, Ryanair, in terms of the number of passengers. LOT is boldly reaching beyond Polish borders by extending its long and short haul connections.
Central Communication Port – potential and challenges
In the opinion of PwC experts, the construction of a large hub near Warsaw is justified by, for example, market growth dynamics and the limited possibilities currently available at Okęcie and Modlin airports. The CCP project has already been included in the new Transport Development Strategy and preparatory work is currently being developed to implement the investment.
The Central Communication Port needs to be viewed in a much broader perspective than only air traffic and in a much longer time horizon. At the moment there is a niche in this part of our region. Operationally effective and cost-competitive, the CCP could unlock air traffic potential, becoming one of the most important international communication hubs. The success of this scenario will require the correct planning of the remaining components, namely railway and road transport.
The authors of the report point out that construction or extension of airport infrastructure with a capacity of over 40 million passengers are being implemented in other European countries, including Turkey, Russia and Germany. Both the future CCP airport and the new airports in Istanbul, as well as the expansion of the airports in Moscow and Munich are intended to satisfy the needs of the dynamically growing transit traffic through their geographical location.
The development of the airports in Istanbul and Moscow goes hand in hand with the development strategy of the national carriers focusing on, for example, transit traffic in their home cities, which also will be a success factor in the case of the CCP.
Airline business models
The data presented in the PwC report indicate that the financial situation of air carriers in Europe remains stable regardless of the business model chosen. Both traditional and low-cost carriers generate progressively higher revenues from additional services year on year.
Additional services now account for 11% of total revenue, which means they have doubled their share since 2010. The majority of the profit comes from luggage-related charges, which account for 27% of the revenue from additional services. A significant portion of revenue is also generated by charges such as priority boarding and on-board services.
Partner, PwC Poland
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Partner, CEE Capital Projects and Infrastructure, Government and Public Sector Leader, PwC Poland
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Head of Communications, Poland, PwC Poland
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PR Manager, PwC Poland
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